James Conner Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

James Conner

RB · Arizona Cardinals

Carries

San Francisco 49ers vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 2, 2023 12:01 AM EST

Analysis

James Conner Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (-112/-117).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 13.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 13.5 @ -117.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Cardinals will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Jonathan Gannon, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to tilt 5.9% more towards rushing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
The Arizona Cardinals have run the 5th-most plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a whopping 60.9 plays per game.
The Cardinals have played in the 5th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in football since the start of last season, which ought to lead to reduced pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced passing attack results when facing windier conditions this week.
The model projects James Conner to total 15.4 carries this week, on average, ranking him in the 87th percentile among running backs.
James Conner has received 62.2% of his offense's rush attempts this year, placing him in the 92nd percentile when it comes to running backs.

Favors Under

The Arizona Cardinals will be forced to utilize backup QB Joshua Dobbs this week, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
The Cardinals are a massive 14.5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
The projections expect the Cardinals as the 11th-least run-oriented team among all teams this week with a 40.1% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Our trusted projections expect the Cardinals to call the 4th-fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 60.8 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Cardinals offensive line ranks as the 6th-worst in football since the start of last season at blocking for the run game.