James Conner Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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James Conner

NFL · Player Props

James Conner

RB · Arizona Cardinals

Carries

Houston Texans vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 11, 2023

Updated Nov 19, 2023 8:21 PM UTC

Analysis

James Conner Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (-127/-108).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 14.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 14.5 @ -127.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Arizona Cardinals boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Jonathan Gannon, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to tilt 2.8% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
At the moment, the 9th-most run-heavy team in football (41.5% in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Arizona Cardinals.
Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Cardinals are forecasted by our trusted projection set to run 66.5 plays on offense in this contest: the 3rd-most among all teams this week.
James Conner has been much less involved in his team's offense this season, staying in the game for just 61.9% of snaps compared to 79.5% last season.
The model projects James Conner to notch 16.5 carries in this game, on balance, putting him in the 89th percentile among running backs.

Favors Under

A throwing game script is indicated by the Cardinals being a -5.5-point underdog in this week's contest.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
When talking about run-blocking (and the impact it has on all ground game statistics), the O-line of the Cardinals ranks as the 6th-worst in football last year.

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