James Conner Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 17

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James Conner

NFL · Player Props

James Conner

RB · Arizona Cardinals

Carries

Atlanta Falcons vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 17, 2022

Updated Jan 1, 2023 5:21 PM UTC

Analysis

James Conner Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 17.5 (+102/-132).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 16.5 @ -130 before it was bet up to 17.5 @ +102.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-most plays run out of all the games this week at 131.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Arizona Cardinals have run the 2nd-most plays in football this year, averaging a colossal 63.1 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects James Conner to accrue 19.0 rush attempts in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 96th percentile among RBs.
THE BLITZ projects James Conner to be a much bigger part of his offense's rushing attack this week (78.9% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (61.1% in games he has played).
The Atlanta Falcons linebackers project as the 7th-worst LB corps in football this year in regard to defending the run.

Favors Under

The Arizona Cardinals will be rolling out backup QB David Blough in this week's contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
The Cardinals are a huge 7.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Arizona Cardinals as the 9th-least run-heavy team among all teams this week with a 37.7% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The Arizona Cardinals O-line grades out as the 5th-worst in football this year in run blocking.

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