James Conner Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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James Conner

NFL · Player Props

James Conner

RB · Arizona Cardinals

Carries

Arizona Cardinals vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 16, 2022

Updated Dec 26, 2022 12:21 AM UTC

Analysis

James Conner Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 17.5 (-103/-133).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 17.5 @ -119 before it was bet down to 17.5 @ -133.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 138.6 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Arizona Cardinals have run the 3rd-most plays in the league this year, totaling a monstrous 62.6 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects James Conner to total 18.6 rush attempts in this week's contest, on average, ranking in the 96th percentile among RBs.
THE BLITZ projects James Conner to be a much bigger part of his team's running game this week (75.2% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (61.3% in games he has played).
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers defensive ends project as the 5th-worst collection of DEs in the NFL this year when it comes to defending the run.

Favors Under

The Arizona Cardinals will be forced to start backup QB Trace McSorley in this week's contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
The Cardinals are a 6.5-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Arizona Cardinals to be the 4th-least run-centric offense on the slate this week with a 36.1% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
The Arizona Cardinals O-line profiles as the worst in football this year at blocking for rushers.

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