Jameis Winston TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Jameis Winston

NFL · Player Props

Jameis Winston

QB · New York Giants

TD Passes

Washington Commanders vs New York Giants · Week 5, 2026

Updated Oct 11, 2026 1:02 PM EST

Analysis

Jameis Winston TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+170/-213).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -190 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -213.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Giants will be rolling out backup quarterback Jameis Winston in this contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
This game's spread suggests a passing game script for the Giants, who are -3.5-point underdogs.
Opposing QBs have averaged 37.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Washington Commanders defense this year: 9th-most in the league.
This year, the weak Commanders defense has given up a colossal 73.6% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing teams: the 6th-worst rate in the league.
This year, the porous Washington Commanders defense has given up a whopping 2.75 touchdowns through the air per game to opposing teams: the highest rate in the NFL.

Favors Under

Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Giants to pass on 52.9% of their plays: the 2nd-lowest frequency among all teams this week.
At the moment, the 5th-least pass-centric team in football near the goal line (51.4% adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Giants.
The leading projections forecast the Giants to run the 3rd-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 61.6 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Windy weather conditions (like the 12-mph being predicted in this game) usually correlate with decreased passing effectiveness, reduced air attack volume, and increased ground volume.
Our trusted projections expect Jameis Winston to attempt 30.0 passes in this week's game, on average: the 3rd-fewest among all quarterbacks.

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