Jameis Winston TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Jameis Winston

QB · New York Giants

TD Passes

New York Giants vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 4, 2026

Updated Oct 2, 2026 6:52 PM EST

Analysis

Jameis Winston TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+170/-186).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +156 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +170.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The New York Giants will be starting backup quarterback Jameis Winston in this contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
The Arizona Cardinals defense has yielded the 5th-most TDs through the air in the league: 1.90 per game since the start of last season.
As it relates to linebackers in defending pass-catchers, Arizona's group of LBs has been dreadful since the start of last season, grading out as the 7th-worst in the NFL.

Favors Under

The leading projections forecast the New York Giants to be the 2nd-least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 53.2% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
The projections expect the New York Giants to be the 5th-least pass-oriented offense in the NFL near the end zone (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 51.8% red zone pass rate.
At the moment, the 4th-slowest paced offense in the league (context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Giants.
In this week's contest, Jameis Winston is projected by our trusted projection set to wind up with the 3rd-fewest pass attempts among all QBs with 31.1.
Jameis Winston's 52.4% Adjusted Completion% this year conveys a significant regression in his throwing precision over last year's 58.9% rate.