Jameis Winston TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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NFL · Player Props

Jameis Winston

QB · New York Giants

TD Passes

New York Giants vs Tennessee Titans · Week 3, 2026

Updated Sep 27, 2026 2:33 PM EST

Analysis

Jameis Winston TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-239/+198).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -291 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ +198.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The New York Giants may take to the air less in this week's contest (and call more rushes) as a result of being be rolling out backup QB Jameis Winston.
Since the start of last season, the weak Titans defense has allowed a whopping 74.9% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing teams: the 3rd-biggest rate in football.
The Tennessee Titans defense has allowed the 9th-most passing touchdowns in football: 1.68 per game since the start of last season.

Favors Under

Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the New York Giants to pass on 50.9% of their opportunities: the lowest clip among all teams this week.
The model projects the New York Giants to be the 9th-least pass-oriented team in the NFL near the end zone (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 53.6% red zone pass rate.
At the present time, the 10th-slowest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the New York Giants.
The weatherman calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
In this week's contest, Jameis Winston is forecasted by the predictive model to wind up with the 3rd-fewest pass attempts among all QBs with 30.1.