Jameis Winston TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Jameis Winston

NFL · Player Props

Jameis Winston

QB · New Orleans Saints

TD Passes

Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 11:34 PM UTC

Analysis

Jameis Winston TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+105/-140).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -140.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Saints have been the 8th-most pass-centric team in the NFL near the goal line (in a neutral context) since the start of last season with a 61.3% red zone pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Saints to run the 9th-most total plays among all teams this week with 64.1 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Jameis Winston has been among the top TD passers in football since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 2.00 per game while checking in at the 93rd percentile.
Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 5th-highest clip in the NFL against the Atlanta Falcons defense since the start of last season (73.0%).

Favors Under

The Saints are a 5.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints as the 8th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 55.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The New Orleans Saints have called the 10th-least plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a measly 60.9 plays per game.
Jameis Winston has been among the least accurate QBs in the league since the start of last season with a 58.2% Completion%, checking in at the 23rd percentile.
The Atlanta Falcons defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a measly 2.43 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 9th-fastest in the league since the start of last season.

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