Jameis Winston Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

My Account Log Out

reorder

Jameis Winston

NFL · Player Props

Jameis Winston

QB · New York Giants

Rushing Yards

Washington Commanders vs New York Giants · Week 5, 2026

Updated Oct 11, 2026 12:47 PM EST

Analysis

Jameis Winston Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-115/+113).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -113 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the New York Giants to run on 47.1% of their opportunities: the 2nd-greatest rate among all teams this week.
Windy weather conditions (like the 12-mph being predicted in this game) usually correlate with decreased passing effectiveness, reduced air attack volume, and increased ground volume.
The model projects Jameis Winston to be a more integral piece of his offense's run game this week (9.2% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (3.7% in games he has played).
Jameis Winston has picked up 19.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the highest marks in football when it comes to QBs (83rd percentile).
The Commanders defense owns the 7th-worst efficiency against opposing ground games since the start of last season, allowing 5.01 adjusted yards-per-carry.

Favors Under

The Giants will be rolling out backup quarterback Jameis Winston in this contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
This game's spread suggests a passing game script for the Giants, who are -3.5-point underdogs.
The leading projections forecast the Giants to run the 3rd-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 61.6 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Our trusted projections expect Jameis Winston to earn 2.7 carries in this week's game, on average: the 8th-fewest out of all QBs.
The Commanders defensive tackles profile as the 5th-best unit in the NFL this year when it comes to stopping the run.

More Jameis Winston Props Data by WriteNow™

About WriteNow