Jameis Winston Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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NFL · Player Props

Jameis Winston

QB · New Orleans Saints

Passing Yards

Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 11:34 PM EST

Analysis

Jameis Winston Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 229.5 (-135/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 227.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 229.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Saints to run the 9th-most total plays among all teams this week with 64.1 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 5th-highest clip in the NFL against the Atlanta Falcons defense since the start of last season (73.0%).
The Atlanta Falcons linebackers project as the 5th-worst collection of LBs in football since the start of last season in pass coverage.
The New Orleans Saints offensive line has allowed their quarterback 2.74 seconds before the pass (3rd-best in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a positive effect on all passing attack stats across the board.

Favors Under

The Saints are a 5.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints as the 8th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 55.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The New Orleans Saints have called the 10th-least plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a measly 60.9 plays per game.
Jameis Winston has been among the least accurate QBs in the league since the start of last season with a 58.2% Completion%, checking in at the 23rd percentile.
The Atlanta Falcons defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a measly 2.43 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 9th-fastest in the league since the start of last season.