Ja'Marr Chase Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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NFL · Player Props

Ja'Marr Chase

WR · Cincinnati Bengals

Touchdowns

Baltimore Ravens vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 7, 2026

Updated Oct 25, 2026 3:42 PM EST

Analysis

Ja'Marr Chase Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+117/-127).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The model projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 2nd-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 64.3% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
Right now, the 4th-most pass-oriented team in the NFL in the red zone (61.9% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Bengals.
The passing attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still weather conditions (2-mph wind) being predicted in this game, while rush volume may drop.
Ja'Marr Chase has been a key part of his team's passing attack near the end zone, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 26.9% this year, which puts him in the 94th percentile among wide receivers.
With a fantastic 72.2% Adjusted Completion Rate (79th percentile) this year, Ja'Marr Chase stands among the most reliable receivers in the NFL when it comes to wide receivers.

Favors Under

This game's line suggests a passing game script for the Bengals, who are -3-point underdogs.
Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Cincinnati Bengals are anticipated by our trusted projection set to run just 61.4 offensive plays in this contest: the 3rd-lowest number on the slate this week.
After accumulating 101.0 air yards per game last season, Ja'Marr Chase has been a disappointment this season, now pacing 72.0 per game.
Ja'Marr Chase's 49.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that quantifies high-value offensive usage) has been notably lower this year than it was last year at 74.7.
The Ravens defense has yielded the 2nd-fewest TDs through the air in football to wideouts: 0.33 per game this year.