Ja'Marr Chase Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Ja'Marr Chase

NFL · Player Props

Ja'Marr Chase

WR · Cincinnati Bengals

Touchdowns

Miami Dolphins vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 5, 2026

Updated Oct 11, 2026 3:42 PM EST

Analysis

Ja'Marr Chase Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+102/-111).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The model projects the Bengals as the 3rd-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 62.9% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The leading projections forecast the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 3rd-most pass-oriented team in the NFL near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 62.9% red zone pass rate.
Opposing QBs have completed passes at the highest rate in the league vs. the Miami Dolphins defense since the start of last season (75.8% Adjusted Completion%).
As it relates to safeties in defending pass-catchers, Miami's collection of safeties has been awful this year, profiling as the 5th-worst in football.

Favors Under

This week's line suggests an extreme running game script for the Bengals, who are a heavy favorite by 7 points.
The projections expect this game to have the fewest plays run among all games this week at 120.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.5 pass attempts per game versus the Dolphins defense this year: 8th-fewest in football.
The Dolphins defense has allowed the 2nd-fewest receiving touchdowns in football to wideouts: 0.25 per game this year.

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