Ja'Marr Chase Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Ja'Marr Chase

WR · Cincinnati Bengals

Touchdowns

Cincinnati Bengals vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 4, 2026

Updated Oct 4, 2026 4:32 PM EST

Analysis

Ja'Marr Chase Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-106/+102).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Cincinnati Bengals to pass on 65.0% of their chances: the greatest clip on the slate this week.
At the moment, the 3rd-most pass-oriented offense in football in the red zone (62.1% context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Cincinnati Bengals.
The weather report calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, and reduced run volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has been a glaring pass funnel since the start of last season, leading opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 2nd-most passes in the NFL (36.4 per game) since the start of last season.
Ja'Marr Chase has compiled a staggering 97.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 95th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.

Favors Under

Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is expected by the projection model to have only 124.7 offensive plays run: the 3rd-fewest among all games this week.
The leading projections forecast Ja'Marr Chase to be a less important option in his team's passing attack near the goal line in this game (30.5% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (40.0% in games he has played).
Ja'Marr Chase's 60.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that calculates high-value offensive usage) has been significantly lower this season than it was last season at 74.7.
The Cincinnati O-line grades out as the 10th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a harmful influence on all passing attack metrics across the board.
The Jacksonville Jaguars pass defense has allowed the 5th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (61.7%) versus WRs since the start of last season (61.7%).