Ja'Marr Chase Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Ja'Marr Chase

NFL · Player Props

Ja'Marr Chase

WR · Cincinnati Bengals

Touchdowns

Cincinnati Bengals vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 1, 2026

Updated Sep 13, 2026 4:32 PM EST

Analysis

Ja'Marr Chase Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-108/+100).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast the Cincinnati Bengals as the most pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 64.4% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
Our trusted projections expect the Bengals to be the 3rd-most pass-oriented team in the league near the goal line (in a neutral context) right now with a 64.3% red zone pass rate.
Ja'Marr Chase has been an integral part of his team's offense near the goal line, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 26.2% last year, which places him in the 96th percentile when it comes to wideouts.
As it relates to air yards, Ja'Marr Chase ranks in the lofty 96th percentile among wideouts last year, totaling an impressive 101.0 per game.
Ja'Marr Chase's 74.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that examines high-value offensive volume) grades out among the best in football: 98th percentile for WRs.

Favors Under

With a 3.5-point advantage, the Bengals are favored in this game, implying more of a reliance on rushing than their standard game plan.
The predictive model expects this game to see the 2nd-smallest number of plays run on the slate this week at 124.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has surrendered the 6th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (61.7%) versus wideouts last year (61.7%).

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