Ja'Marr Chase Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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NFL · Player Props

Ja'Marr Chase

WR · Cincinnati Bengals

Receptions

Miami Dolphins vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 5, 2026

Updated Oct 11, 2026 3:42 PM EST

Analysis

Ja'Marr Chase Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-106/-111).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 6.5 @ -122 before it was bet down to 6.5 @ -111.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The model projects the Bengals as the 3rd-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 62.9% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
In this week's contest, Ja'Marr Chase is projected by the model to position himself in the 99th percentile when it comes to wide receivers with 10.7 targets.
Since the start of last season, the porous Miami Dolphins pass defense has yielded a massive 68.6% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing wideouts: the 5th-largest rate in football.
As it relates to safeties in defending pass-catchers, Miami's collection of safeties has been awful this year, profiling as the 5th-worst in football.

Favors Under

This week's line suggests an extreme running game script for the Bengals, who are a heavy favorite by 7 points.
The projections expect this game to have the fewest plays run among all games this week at 120.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.5 pass attempts per game versus the Dolphins defense this year: 8th-fewest in football.