Ja'Marr Chase Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Ja'Marr Chase

WR · Cincinnati Bengals

Receptions

Cincinnati Bengals vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 4, 2026

Updated Oct 4, 2026 4:32 PM EST

Analysis

Ja'Marr Chase Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (+127/-133).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 6.5 @ -133 before it was bet up to 7.5 @ +127.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Cincinnati Bengals to pass on 65.0% of their chances: the greatest clip on the slate this week.
The weather report calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, and reduced run volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has been a glaring pass funnel since the start of last season, leading opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 2nd-most passes in the NFL (36.4 per game) since the start of last season.
This week, Ja'Marr Chase is predicted by the predictive model to place in the 100th percentile when it comes to WRs with 11.7 targets.
The model projects Ja'Marr Chase to be much more involved in his offense's passing attack in this contest (31.3% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (25.8% in games he has played).

Favors Under

Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is expected by the projection model to have only 124.7 offensive plays run: the 3rd-fewest among all games this week.
The Cincinnati O-line grades out as the 10th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a harmful influence on all passing attack metrics across the board.
The Jacksonville Jaguars pass defense has allowed the 5th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (61.7%) versus WRs since the start of last season (61.7%).
The Jacksonville Jaguars linebackers profile as the 3rd-best LB corps in the league since the start of last season in defending pass-catchers.