Ja'Marr Chase Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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NFL · Player Props

Ja'Marr Chase

WR · Cincinnati Bengals

Receptions

Cincinnati Bengals vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 1, 2026

Updated Sep 13, 2026 4:32 PM EST

Analysis

Ja'Marr Chase Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (+125/-147).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 10.5 @ -173 before it was bet down to 7.5 @ -147.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast the Cincinnati Bengals as the most pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 64.4% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
With an impressive 96.5% Route% (99th percentile) last year, Ja'Marr Chase rates as one of the WRs with the most usage in the NFL.
Our trusted projections expect Ja'Marr Chase to accumulate 11.2 targets in this week's contest, on balance, ranking him in the 100th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
Ja'Marr Chase rates as one of the leading wide receivers in the league last year, averaging an outstanding 7.0 adjusted receptions per game while checking in at the 100th percentile.
When it comes to cornerbacks in covering pass-catchers, Tampa Bay's group of CBs has been awful last year, grading out as the 3rd-worst in the league.

Favors Under

With a 3.5-point advantage, the Bengals are favored in this game, implying more of a reliance on rushing than their standard game plan.
The predictive model expects this game to see the 2nd-smallest number of plays run on the slate this week at 124.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has surrendered the 6th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (61.7%) versus wideouts last year (61.7%).