Ja'Marr Chase Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Ja'Marr Chase

NFL · Player Props

Ja'Marr Chase

WR · Cincinnati Bengals

Receptions

Cincinnati Bengals vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 8, 2024

Updated Oct 27, 2024 11:21 PM EST

Analysis

Ja'Marr Chase Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-150/+115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 5.5 @ -129 before it was bet up to 6.5 @ -150.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects the Bengals to be the 2nd-most pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 63.6% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
Given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Cincinnati Bengals are predicted by the model to run only 63.1 plays on offense in this contest: the 7th-fewest among all teams this week.
The weather forecast calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, and lower run volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
In this week's game, Ja'Marr Chase is projected by the predictive model to find himself in the 99th percentile among WRs with 10.5 targets.
While Ja'Marr Chase has received 22.3% of his team's targets in games he has played this year, the leading projections forecast him to be much more involved in Cincinnati's passing attack in this week's game at 28.0%.

Favors Under

A passing game script is implied by the Bengals being a -5.5-point underdog in this game.
The 3rd-smallest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Cincinnati Bengals this year (a mere 53.0 per game on average).
The Eagles pass defense has yielded the 9th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (61.4%) versus wideouts this year (61.4%).
The Philadelphia Eagles cornerbacks profile as the 4th-best CB corps in the NFL this year in defending receivers.

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