Ja'Marr Chase Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Ja'Marr Chase

NFL · Player Props

Ja'Marr Chase

WR · Cincinnati Bengals

Receptions

Cincinnati Bengals vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 14, 2023

Updated Dec 10, 2023 8:21 PM EST

Analysis

Ja'Marr Chase Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (+120/-150).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 5.5 @ -145 before it was bet up to 6.5 @ +120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Cincinnati Bengals may throw the ball less in this week's game (and hand the ball off more) because they be starting backup QB Jake Browning.
At the moment, the 2nd-most pass-centric team in the league (66.9% adjusted for context) according to the predictive model is the Bengals.
Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is anticipated by our trusted projection set to have 138.0 plays on offense run: the most among all games this week.
With an elite 96.9% Route Participation Rate (98th percentile) this year, Ja'Marr Chase stands among the WRs with the highest volume in the league.
In this week's contest, Ja'Marr Chase is anticipated by the predictive model to secure a spot in the 99th percentile among wideouts with 10.9 targets.

Favors Under

A rushing game script is indicated by the Bengals being a 3-point favorite in this week's contest.
The 10th-smallest volume of plays in football have been run by the Cincinnati Bengals this year (a measly 56.2 per game on average).
Opposing teams teams have been disinclined to lean on the pass against the Indianapolis Colts, totaling the 8th-fewest attempts in the league (a measly 34.0 per game) this year.
In regards to pass protection (and the effect it has on all pass game metrics), the offensive line of the Cincinnati Bengals grades out as the 7th-worst in the league this year.
As it relates to safeties in defending receivers, Indianapolis's group of safeties has been outstanding this year, profiling as the 6th-best in the league.

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