Ja'Marr Chase Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 1

NFL · Player Props

Ja'Marr Chase

WR · Cincinnati Bengals

Receptions

Cincinnati Bengals vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 11:34 PM UTC

Analysis

Ja'Marr Chase Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-135/+100).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 5.5 @ +110 before it was bet down to 5.5 @ +100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Ja'Marr Chase has run a route on 96.2% of his team's dropbacks since the start of last season, ranking in the 99th percentile among wide receivers.
THE BLITZ projects Ja'Marr Chase to accumulate 7.9 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 90th percentile among wideouts.
Ja'Marr Chase has been among the top wide receivers in the game since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 5.0 receptions per game while grading out in the 88th percentile.
The Pittsburgh Steelers safeties rank as the 3rd-worst group of safeties in football since the start of last season in pass coverage.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have stacked the box against opponents on 21.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Bengals are a massive 7-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 55.5% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals offense as the 7th-most sluggish paced team in football (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 27.80 seconds per play.
Opposing offenses have averaged 31.7 pass attempts per game vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers defense since the start of last season: 8th-least in the NFL.
The Cincinnati Bengals O-line profiles as the 9th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a harmful effect on all passing game stats across the board.