Ja'Marr Chase Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

NFL · Player Props

Ja'Marr Chase

WR · Cincinnati Bengals

Receiving Yards

Tennessee Titans vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 1, 2023 7:36 PM UTC

Analysis

Ja'Marr Chase Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 83.5 (-150/+115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 82.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 83.5 @ -150.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 65.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, and reduced rush volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Opposing offenses have averaged 39.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Tennessee Titans defense since the start of last season: most in the NFL.
Ja'Marr Chase has run a route on 99.3% of his offense's passing plays this year, ranking him in the 100th percentile among WRs.
The predictive model expects Ja'Marr Chase to garner 10.6 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 97th percentile among wideouts.

Favors Under

The predictive model expects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 119.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Cincinnati Bengals offensive line ranks as the 6th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.
Ja'Marr Chase's pass-game efficiency has tailed off this year, totaling a mere 6.87 yards-per-target vs a 8.79 mark last year.
The Tennessee Titans pass defense has been quite strong when opposing wideouts have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 2.86 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 2nd-fewest in the NFL.
As it relates to cornerbacks in covering receivers, Tennessee's unit has been outstanding since the start of last season, ranking as the 8th-best in football.