Ja'Marr Chase Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 20

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Ja'Marr Chase

NFL · Player Props

Ja'Marr Chase

WR · Cincinnati Bengals

Receiving Yards

Buffalo Bills vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 20, 2022

Updated Jan 22, 2023 8:01 PM EST

Analysis

Ja'Marr Chase Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 86.5 (-150/+105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 84.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 86.5 @ -150.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bengals are a 5.5-point underdog this week, which points towards a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 67.0% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 131.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Ja'Marr Chase has run a route on 99.6% of his team's dropbacks this year, placing him in the 100th percentile among wideouts.

Favors Under

Ja'Marr Chase has notched quite a few less air yards this season (97.0 per game) than he did last season (105.0 per game).
The Cincinnati Bengals O-line profiles as the worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful effect on all air attack metrics across the board.
Ja'Marr Chase's receiving effectiveness has worsened this season, averaging a measly 8.84 yards-per-target vs a 10.34 rate last season.
The Buffalo Bills pass defense has been quite strong when opposing wideouts have gotten into space, conceding an average of 3.08 yards-after-the-catch this year: the least in the NFL.
The Buffalo Bills linebackers project as the best collection of LBs in the league this year in pass coverage.

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