Ja'Marr Chase Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 13

NFL · Player Props

Ja'Marr Chase

WR · Cincinnati Bengals

Receiving Yards

Cincinnati Bengals vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 5, 2022 12:46 AM UTC

Analysis

Ja'Marr Chase Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 76.5 (+103/-136).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 74.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 76.5 @ +103.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 4th-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 65.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-most plays run on the slate this week at 133.1 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Opposing offenses have averaged 37.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: 6th-most in football.
Ja'Marr Chase has run a route on 99.3% of his offense's passing plays this year, putting him in the 100th percentile among WRs.

Favors Under

Ja'Marr Chase's receiving efficiency has declined this season, averaging a measly 8.98 yards-per-target compared to a 10.34 rate last season.
The Kansas City Chiefs cornerbacks profile as the 6th-best group of CBs in the NFL this year in covering receivers.
The Cincinnati Bengals offensive line has allowed their QB a mere 2.49 seconds before the pass (4th-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a harmful impact on all pass game statistics across the board.
The Kansas City Chiefs pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs just 2.31 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the fastest in football since the start of last season.
The Kansas City Chiefs have stacked the box against opponents on just 11.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in the league. Choosing not to position an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.