Ja'Marr Chase Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Ja'Marr Chase

NFL · Player Props

Ja'Marr Chase

WR · Cincinnati Bengals

Receiving TD

New Orleans Saints vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 16, 2022 11:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Ja'Marr Chase Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+115/-154).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +135 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Ja'Marr Chase's 66.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the best in football: 92nd percentile for wideouts.
Ja'Marr Chase grades out in the 86th percentile among wide receivers as it relates to catching touchdowns this year, averaging a stellar 0.40 per game.
The New Orleans Saints pass defense has allowed the 10th-highest Completion% in football (67.8%) to WRs this year (67.8%).
The New Orleans Saints defense has surrendered the 10th-most TDs through the air in the league to WRs: 1.00 per game this year.

Favors Under

The Bengals are a 3-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals offense as the 7th-worst paced team in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 29.51 seconds per play.
Opposing offenses have averaged 34.0 pass attempts per game versus the New Orleans Saints defense this year: 10th-least in the NFL.
THE BLITZ projects Ja'Marr Chase to be a less important option in his offense's pass attack near the goal line this week (27.8% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (34.4% in games he has played).
Ja'Marr Chase has notched quite a few less air yards this season (93.0 per game) than he did last season (109.0 per game).

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