Ja'Marr Chase Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Ja'Marr Chase

NFL · Player Props

Ja'Marr Chase

WR · Cincinnati Bengals

Receiving TD

Baltimore Ravens vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 10, 2022 12:05 AM EST

Analysis

Ja'Marr Chase Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+133/-183).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +144 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +133.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bengals are a 3-point underdog in this week's game, indicating a passing game script.
The Cincinnati Bengals have called the 3rd-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a monstrous 71.8 plays per game.
The weather forecast calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Opposing offenses have averaged 45.0 pass attempts per game versus the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: 2nd-most in the league.
Ja'Marr Chase's 64.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) grades out among the league leaders: 89th percentile for wideouts.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Bengals to call the least total plays among all teams this week with 60.8 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Ja'Marr Chase to be much less involved in his team's air attack near the end zone this week (26.1% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (34.8% in games he has played).
Ja'Marr Chase has notched far fewer air yards this season (104.0 per game) than he did last season (109.0 per game).
The Cincinnati Bengals O-line grades out as the 6th-worst in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all passing game statistics across the board.
The Baltimore Ravens safeties grade out as the 8th-best safety corps in the NFL this year in covering receivers.

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