Ja'Marr Chase Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 13

NFL · Player Props

Ja'Marr Chase

WR · Cincinnati Bengals

Receiving TD

Cincinnati Bengals vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 5, 2022 12:46 AM UTC

Analysis

Ja'Marr Chase Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+122/-165).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -154 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -165.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-most plays run on the slate this week at 133.1 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Opposing offenses have averaged 37.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: 6th-most in football.
Ja'Marr Chase has been an integral part of his team's offense near the goal line, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 31.4% this year, which ranks him in the 98th percentile among WRs.
Ja'Marr Chase has totaled a monstrous 104.0 air yards per game this year: 95th percentile among wideouts.

Favors Under

The Kansas City Chiefs cornerbacks profile as the 6th-best group of CBs in the NFL this year in covering receivers.
The Cincinnati Bengals offensive line has allowed their QB a mere 2.49 seconds before the pass (4th-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a harmful impact on all pass game statistics across the board.
The Kansas City Chiefs pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs just 2.31 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the fastest in football since the start of last season.
The Kansas City Chiefs have stacked the box against opponents on just 11.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in the league. Choosing not to position an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
The Cincinnati Bengals have utilized play action on a lowly 18.9% of their passing plays since the start of last season (4th-least in the NFL), creating a more one-dimensional offense that hurts passing production.