Jamaal Williams Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Jamaal Williams

NFL · Player Props

Jamaal Williams

RB · New Orleans Saints

Rushing Yards

Indianapolis Colts vs New Orleans Saints · Week 8, 2023

Updated Oct 29, 2023 4:36 PM UTC

Analysis

Jamaal Williams Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-145/+106).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 14.5 @ -119 before it was bet up to 15.5 @ -145.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the New Orleans Saints are expected by the projections to run 67.9 plays on offense in this contest: the 2nd-most among all teams this week.
The New Orleans Saints have run the most plays in the league this year, totaling a massive 66.4 plays per game.
With an impressive tally of 61.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground (91st percentile), Jamaal Williams has been among the leading pure runners in the NFL since the start of last season.

Favors Under

The model projects the Saints to be the 9th-least run-centric team among all teams this week with a 40.0% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The passing offenses of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may decline.
While Jamaal Williams has earned 37.2% of his offense's rushing play calls in games he has played this year, the predictive model expects him to be a less important option in New Orleans's rushing attack this week at 19.9%.
Jamaal Williams's 2.7 adjusted yards per carry this year conveys a remarkable drop-off in his rushing skills over last year's 4.4 figure.
When it comes to the defensive ends' role in defending against the run, Indianapolis's unit has been exceptional this year, projecting as the 5th-best in football.

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