Jamaal Williams Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Jamaal Williams

RB · Detroit Lions

Rushing Yards

Detroit Lions vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 7:25 PM UTC

Analysis

Jamaal Williams Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 67.5 (-135/+102).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 67.5 @ -117 before it was bet up to 67.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Lions are a 3-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions to be the 6th-most run-oriented team in football (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 41.6% run rate.
The Detroit Lions offense has played at the 10th-fastest pace in the NFL (adjusted for context) this year, averaging 26.77 seconds per snap.
THE BLITZ projects Jamaal Williams to garner 18.3 rush attempts in this week's contest, on average, putting him in the 91st percentile among RBs.
THE BLITZ projects Jamaal Williams to be a more integral piece of his offense's rushing attack this week (65.4% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (53.2% in games he has played).

Favors Under

This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Jamaal Williams has been among the bottom running backs in the NFL at generating extra rushing yardage, averaging just 2.33 yards-after-contact this year while ranking in the 10th percentile.
The Seattle Seahawks defense has produced the 6th-best efficiency against opposing rushing attacks since the start of last season, conceding just 4.16 yards-per-carry.
The Seattle Seahawks defensive tackles project as the best collection of DTs in football since the start of last season in regard to run defense.
The Seattle Seahawks have stacked the box versus opponents on 19.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.