Jamaal Williams Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Jamaal Williams

NFL · Player Props

Jamaal Williams

RB · Detroit Lions

Rushing Yards

Minnesota Vikings vs Detroit Lions · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 11:30 PM UTC

Analysis

Jamaal Williams Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 40.5 (-101/-135).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 43.5 @ -119 before it was bet down to 40.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions offense as the 10th-fastest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 26.55 seconds per snap.
Jamaal Williams has averaged 47.0 rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the largest marks in the league among RBs (77th percentile).
Opposing offenses have rushed for the 9th-most yards in the NFL (128 per game) versus the Minnesota Vikings defense since the start of last season.
The Detroit Lions have elected to go for it on 4th down 27.9% of the time since the start of last season (most in the league), which usually means more offensive volume, more touchdown potential, and higher offensive statistics across the board.

Favors Under

The Lions are a 6.5-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions to be the 7th-least run-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 38.0% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Jamaal Williams to be a much smaller part of his team's run game this week (39.6% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (50.7% in games he has played).
Jamaal Williams has been among the worst running backs in the league at generating extra rushing yardage, averaging a lowly 1.96 yards-after-contact this year while ranking in the 7th percentile.

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