Jamaal Williams Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Jamaal Williams

NFL · Player Props

Jamaal Williams

RB · Detroit Lions

Rushing Yards

Detroit Lions vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 11:34 PM UTC

Analysis

Jamaal Williams Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 28.5 (-108/-123).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 28.5 @ -103 before it was bet down to 28.5 @ -123.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions to be the 4th-most run-heavy team in football (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 41.7% run rate.
Jamaal Williams has generated 46.0 yards per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the largest marks in football among running backs (78th percentile).
The Philadelphia Eagles defensive tackles project as the 2nd-worst group of DTs in football since the start of last season in regard to run defense.
The Detroit Lions have gone for it on 4th down 27.9% of the time since the start of last season (most in the NFL), which usually means more offensive volume, more TD potential, and higher offensive statistics across the board.

Favors Under

The Lions are a 5.5-point underdog this week, which points towards a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-least plays run among all games this week at 120.2 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Jamaal Williams to be a much smaller piece of his offense's rushing attack this week (32.8% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (51.2% in games he has played).

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