Jamaal Williams Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Jamaal Williams

NFL · Player Props

Jamaal Williams

RB · Detroit Lions

Rushing TD

Detroit Lions vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 11:34 PM UTC

Analysis

Jamaal Williams Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+283/-488).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +326 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +283.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions to be the 7th-most run-centric offense in the NFL near the end zone (in a neutral context) right now with a 44.4% red zone run rate.
Opposing offenses have run for the 8th-most TDs in football (1.06 per game) vs. the Philadelphia Eagles defense since the start of last season.
The Philadelphia Eagles defensive tackles project as the 2nd-worst group of DTs in football since the start of last season in regard to run defense.
The Detroit Lions have gone for it on 4th down 27.9% of the time since the start of last season (most in the NFL), which usually means more offensive volume, more TD potential, and higher offensive statistics across the board.

Favors Under

The Lions are a 5.5-point underdog this week, which points towards a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-least plays run among all games this week at 120.2 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Jamaal Williams to be a less important option in his offense's running game near the goal line this week (34.8% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (51.1% in games he has played).

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