Jamaal Williams Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Jamaal Williams

NFL · Player Props

Jamaal Williams

RB · Detroit Lions

Receptions

Detroit Lions vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 11:20 PM EST

Analysis

Jamaal Williams Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-106/-129).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -101 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -106.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Detroit Lions offense has played at the 10th-fastest pace in the NFL (adjusted for context) this year, averaging 26.77 seconds per snap.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Jamaal Williams to total 3.6 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 85th percentile among running backs.
THE BLITZ projects Jamaal Williams to be much more involved in his offense's pass game this week (10.2% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (4.6% in games he has played).
The Seattle Seahawks pass defense has surrendered the highest Completion% in the league (89.8%) versus running backs since the start of last season (89.8%).

Favors Under

The Lions are a 3-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions to be the 6th-least pass-centric offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 58.4% pass rate.
Jamaal Williams's ball-catching skills have tailed off this year, with his Completion% falling off from 92.9% to 80.0%.
The Detroit Lions offensive line has given their quarterback a measly 2.53 seconds before the pass (9th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all passing offense metrics across the board.
The Detroit Lions have utilized play action on a lowly 22.0% of their passing plays since the start of last season (6th-least in the NFL), making the offense more predictable and lowering passing effectiveness.

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