Jamaal Williams Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Jamaal Williams

NFL · Player Props

Jamaal Williams

RB · Detroit Lions

Receptions

New York Giants vs Detroit Lions · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 21, 2022 12:21 AM EST

Analysis

Jamaal Williams Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+165/-234).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -137 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -234.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Lions are a 3-point underdog in this week's game, indicating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-most plays run out of all the games this week at 130.0 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The New York Giants linebackers project as the 4th-worst unit in football this year in pass coverage.
The New York Giants defense has gotten pressure on opposing QBs 2.61 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the slowest in the league since the start of last season.
The Detroit Lions have risked going for it on 4th down 27.9% of the time since the start of last season (most in football), which typically means more offensive volume, more touchdown potential, and higher offensive stats across the board.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions as the 8th-least pass-heavy team in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 58.1% pass rate.
The forecast calls for 20-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
Opposing teams have averaged 34.1 pass attempts per game versus the New York Giants defense this year: 9th-least in football.
The Detroit Lions O-line grades out as the 7th-worst in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative effect on all passing offense metrics across the board.
Jamaal Williams's pass-catching performance diminished this year, notching a measly 1.0 yards per game vs 2.0 last year.

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