Jamaal Williams Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Jamaal Williams

NFL · Player Props

Jamaal Williams

RB · Detroit Lions

Receiving Yards

Detroit Lions vs Buffalo Bills · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 24, 2022 2:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Jamaal Williams Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+103/-136).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -113 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -136.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Lions are a 3-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions to be the 7th-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 63.4% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Lions to call the 8th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 66.2 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
Jamaal Williams has accrued a colossal 2.0 air yards per game this year: 76th percentile among running backs. (That may not sound like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards because they are targeted behind the line of scrimmage).

Favors Under

The Detroit Lions offensive line ranks as the 7th-worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a harmful impact on all passing game stats across the board.
Jamaal Williams has put up substantially fewer receiving yards per game (6.0) this year than he did last year (12.0).
Jamaal Williams's receiving reliability have declined this year, with his Completion% falling off from 92.9% to 75.0%.
Jamaal Williams's pass-game effectiveness has worsened this year, notching a mere 4.63 yards-per-target vs a 5.55 figure last year.
The Buffalo Bills linebackers grade out as the best collection of LBs in football this year in pass coverage.

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