Jamaal Williams Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Jamaal Williams

NFL · Player Props

Jamaal Williams

RB · Detroit Lions

Carries

Detroit Lions vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 5, 2022 12:46 AM UTC

Analysis

Jamaal Williams Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-115/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 15.5 @ -105 before it was bet down to 15.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions as the 8th-most run-centric team in football (context-neutralized) right now with a 41.7% run rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Lions to call the 6th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 66.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Jamaal Williams to garner 16.2 carries in this week's game, on average, putting him in the 88th percentile among RBs.
Jamaal Williams has been a much bigger part of his team's running game this season (61.3% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last season (51.2%).
The Detroit Lions offensive line grades out as the 4th-best in the league this year at run-game blocking.

Favors Under

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The Jacksonville Jaguars defensive tackles rank as the 3rd-best DT corps in the league this year in regard to stopping the run.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have stacked the box vs. opponents on 22.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in football. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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