Jalen Tolbert Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Jalen Tolbert

NFL · Player Props

Jalen Tolbert

WR · Dallas Cowboys

Receptions

Dallas Cowboys vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 9:09 PM EST

Analysis

Jalen Tolbert Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+149/-196).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -164 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -196.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Dallas Cowboys to be the 5th-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 64.0% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Cowboys to run the 4th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 64.8 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Dallas Cowboys have called the 2nd-most plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a colossal 66.6 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Opposing offenses have averaged 39.5 pass attempts per game versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense since the start of last season: most in football.

Favors Under

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has surrendered the 7th-lowest Completion% in football (62.7%) versus WRs since the start of last season (62.7%).
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers safeties rank as the 4th-best group of safeties in the NFL since the start of last season in covering receivers.
The Dallas Cowboys have been faced with a stacked the box on just 13.3% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Dallas Cowboys have incorporated play action on a mere 23.6% of their passing plays since the start of last season (9th-least in football), which ultimately hampers passing efficiency.

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