Jalen Tolbert Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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NFL · Player Props

Jalen Tolbert

WR · Dallas Cowboys

Receiving Yards

Carolina Panthers vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 11, 2023

Updated Nov 20, 2023 12:16 AM EST

Analysis

Jalen Tolbert Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 17.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 20.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 17.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Our trusted projections expect the Dallas Cowboys offensive gameplan to lean 6.4% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer now calling the plays.
Based on their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Dallas Cowboys are forecasted by our trusted projection set to run 65.5 plays on offense in this game: the 7th-highest number on the slate this week.
The Cowboys have run the 7th-most plays in football this year, totaling a staggering 60.8 plays per game.
Jalen Tolbert has gone out for fewer passes this year (38.4% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (15.1%).
Jalen Tolbert has compiled many more air yards this season (28.0 per game) than he did last season (6.0 per game).

Favors Under

With a 11.5-point advantage, the Cowboys are heavily favored in this game, indicating much more of a reliance on rushing than their usual game plan.
The leading projections forecast the Dallas Cowboys to be the 7th-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 55.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
Opposing QBs teams have been hesitant to lean on the pass against the Panthers, averaging the 3rd-fewest attempts in football (a lowly 29.9 per game) this year.
With a subpar 1.92 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (19th percentile) this year, Jalen Tolbert ranks among the best WRs in the NFL in football in space.
The Panthers defense has allowed the 4th-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 121.0) versus wide receivers this year.