Jalen Hurts TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Jalen Hurts

QB · Philadelphia Eagles

TD Passes

Philadelphia Eagles vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 4, 2026

Updated Oct 4, 2026 7:42 PM EST

Analysis

Jalen Hurts TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-278/+200).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ 0 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ +200.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Eagles are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's game, indicating a passing game script.
Based on their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Philadelphia Eagles are forecasted by the predictive model to call 65.2 plays on offense in this contest: the 7th-highest number on the slate this week.
Opposing teams have averaged 34.5 pass attempts per game against the Los Angeles Rams defense since the start of last season: 6th-most in the league.
In regards to protecting the quarterback (and the positive impact it has on all air attack statistics), the offensive line of the Philadelphia Eagles ranks as the 3rd-best in the league since the start of last season.
Jalen Hurts has been one of the leading touchdown passers in football since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 1.50 per game while ranking in the 80th percentile.

Favors Under

The model projects the Philadelphia Eagles to be the 9th-least pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 56.0% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
At the moment, the least pass-focused offense in the league near the goal line (48.3% adjusted for context) according to our trusted projection set is the Philadelphia Eagles.
The Eagles have called the 6th-fewest plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a measly 54.6 plays per game.
Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 9th-lowest level in the NFL vs. the Rams defense since the start of last season (67.8% Adjusted Completion%).
As it relates to safeties in covering pass-catchers, Los Angeles's safety corps has been tremendous since the start of last season, ranking as the best in the league.