Jalen Hurts TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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NFL · Player Props

Jalen Hurts

QB · Philadelphia Eagles

TD Passes

Chicago Bears vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 3, 2026

Updated Sep 24, 2026 10:52 PM EST

Analysis

Jalen Hurts TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+127/-152).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +122 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +127.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Philadelphia Eagles are forecasted by our trusted projection set to call 65.0 total plays in this game: the 8th-highest number among all teams this week.
The Eagles have played in the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in football since the start of last season, which ought to mean increased pass volume, reduced running volume, and improved passing offense performance when facing more favorable weather this week.
The Eagles offensive line profiles as the 2nd-best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a positive influence on all pass game statistics across the board.
Jalen Hurts has been one of the best touchdown throwers in the league since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 1.58 per game while ranking in the 85th percentile.
Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 5th-highest rate in the NFL versus the Chicago Bears defense since the start of last season (74.0% Adjusted Completion%).

Favors Under

The Eagles are a 4.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a running game script.
Our trusted projections expect the Eagles to be the least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 51.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
The model projects the Philadelphia Eagles to be the least pass-focused offense in the NFL near the end zone (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 47.7% red zone pass rate.
This week, Jalen Hurts is predicted by the projection model to total the 5th-fewest pass attempts out of all QBs with 31.1.