Jalen Hurts TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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NFL · Player Props

Jalen Hurts

QB · Philadelphia Eagles

TD Passes

Tennessee Titans vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 2, 2026

Updated Sep 20, 2026 3:47 PM EST

Analysis

Jalen Hurts TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+135/-144).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +147 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect the Philadelphia Eagles offense to be the 9th-fastest paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 27.89 seconds per snap.
Philadelphia's passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially reduced (and rushing stats inflated) on account of playing the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the league. We ought to be able to expect some regression with better weather in this game.
The Philadelphia O-line grades out as the 2nd-best in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a positive effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.
With a remarkable rate of 1.56 per game (82nd percentile), Jalen Hurts rates as one of the best touchdown throwers in the NFL since the start of last season.
Since the start of last season, the weak Titans defense has allowed a monstrous 74.8% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the 2nd-biggest rate in the NFL.

Favors Under

The Eagles are a huge 7-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Eagles to pass on 49.9% of their plays: the 3rd-lowest frequency among all teams this week.
The leading projections forecast the Philadelphia Eagles to be the least pass-oriented offense in football near the goal line (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 47.8% red zone pass rate.
The leading projections forecast Jalen Hurts to attempt 30.3 passes in this game, on average: the 5th-fewest out of all quarterbacks.
Opposing teams teams have been hesitant to rely on the passing game too much against the Tennessee Titans, totaling the 6th-fewest attempts in the NFL (just 29.7 per game) since the start of last season.