Jalen Hurts TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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NFL · Player Props

Jalen Hurts

QB · Philadelphia Eagles

TD Passes

Philadelphia Eagles vs Washington Commanders · Week 1, 2026

Updated Sep 13, 2026 4:27 PM EST

Analysis

Jalen Hurts TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+112/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -154 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The model projects the Philadelphia Eagles to call the 7th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 64.8 plays, based on their underlying traits and game dynamics.
Philadelphia's passing stats last year may be artificially decreased (and rushing stats too high) on account of playing the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in football. We ought to be able to count on some correction with improved weather in this game.
The Philadelphia O-line ranks as the 2nd-best in the NFL last year in protecting the passer, which has a positive influence on all passing attack statistics across the board.
With an outstanding rate of 1.47 per game (80th percentile), Jalen Hurts has been among the top touchdown passers in the league last year.
Last year, the porous Washington Commanders defense has been torched for a monstrous 72.6% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the 8th-biggest rate in the league.

Favors Under

The Eagles are a 6-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a running game script.
Our trusted projections expect the Philadelphia Eagles to be the least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 50.7% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
The leading projections forecast the Eagles to be the least pass-oriented team in the NFL near the end zone (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 46.6% red zone pass rate.
The Eagles have run the 10th-fewest plays in the league last year, averaging a lowly 55.0 plays per game.
The model projects Jalen Hurts to attempt 30.6 passes in this week's game, on balance: the 2nd-fewest among all quarterbacks.