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Jalen Hurts

Jalen Hurts TD Passes
Player Prop Week 9

Philadelphia Eagles vs Jacksonville Jaguars

Jalen Hurts TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +110 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -105.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The 7th-largest volume of plays in football have been called by the Eagles this year (a staggering 59.0 per game on average).

The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, and lower run volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

Opposing QBs have averaged 37.1 pass attempts per game versus the Jacksonville Jaguars defense this year: 6th-most in the league.

Jalen Hurts's throwing accuracy has improved this year, with his Adjusted Completion% rising from 65.9% to 69.1%.

Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 4th-highest level in football versus the Jacksonville Jaguars defense this year (75.8% Adjusted Completion%).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With a 7.5-point advantage, the Eagles are a heavy favorite this week, indicating much more of an emphasis on rushing than their standard game plan.

Our trusted projections expect the Philadelphia Eagles as the 2nd-least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 50.9% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.

The leading projections forecast the Philadelphia Eagles to be the least pass-centric offense in the NFL near the goal line (in a neutral context) right now with a 43.4% red zone pass rate.

The predictive model expects this game to have the 3rd-fewest plays run out of all the games this week at 125.2 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The model projects Jalen Hurts to attempt 29.8 passes this week, on balance: the 3rd-fewest among all quarterbacks.

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