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Jalen Hurts

Jalen Hurts TD Passes
Player Prop Week 16

Washington Commanders vs Philadelphia Eagles

Jalen Hurts TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+188/-260).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -235 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -260.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The 8th-highest number of plays in football have been run by the Eagles this year (a staggering 59.6 per game on average).

The Philadelphia O-line grades out as the 10th-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong influence on all pass attack metrics across the board.

Jalen Hurts's passing precision has gotten a boost this season, with his Adjusted Completion% increasing from 65.9% to 69.4%.

This year, the deficient Washington Commanders defense has been torched for a whopping 1.64 TDs through the air per game to opposing quarterbacks: the 7th-worst rate in football.

The Commanders safeties rank as the 5th-worst unit in the NFL this year in defending pass-catchers.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

This game's line indicates a rushing game script for the Eagles, who are favored by 3.5 points.

Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Eagles to pass on 46.7% of their chances: the lowest frequency on the slate this week.

The model projects the Philadelphia Eagles to be the 2nd-least pass-heavy team in the league near the end zone (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 45.1% red zone pass rate.

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is forecasted by the predictive model to see only 129.3 offensive plays run: the 5th-fewest among all games this week.

This week, Jalen Hurts is anticipated by the projection model to have the fewest pass attempts out of all QBs with 27.4.

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