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Jalen Hurts

Jalen Hurts TD Passes
Player Prop Week 12

Philadelphia Eagles vs Buffalo Bills

Jalen Hurts TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -100 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -120.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Philadelphia Eagles are forecasted by the predictive model to run 66.5 plays on offense in this game: the 6th-most on the slate this week.

The 5th-highest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Philadelphia Eagles this year (a staggering 61.3 per game on average).

When it comes to pass-blocking (and the strong effect it has on all pass game statistics), the offensive line of the Eagles grades out as the 4th-best in football this year.

Jalen Hurts's 69.7% Adjusted Completion% this season indicates a noteworthy boost in his throwing accuracy over last season's 66.0% figure.

This year, the shaky Bills defense has allowed a staggering 76.7% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing offenses: the 2nd-worst rate in football.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Our trusted projections expect the Eagles to be the 9th-least pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 53.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

The model projects the Philadelphia Eagles to be the least pass-oriented team in the NFL near the goal line (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 47.1% red zone pass rate.

Opposing quarterbacks teams have been disinclined to lean on the pass against the Buffalo Bills, totaling the 9th-fewest attempts in football (a measly 33.9 per game) this year.

This year, the strong Buffalo Bills defense has given up a paltry 1.18 touchdowns through the air per game to opposing offenses: the 8th-smallest rate in football.

As it relates to cornerbacks in defending receivers, Buffalo's group of CBs has been fantastic this year, grading out as the 6th-best in football.

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