Jalen Hurts TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Jalen Hurts

NFL · Player Props

Jalen Hurts

QB · Philadelphia Eagles

TD Passes

Kansas City Chiefs vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 11, 2023

Updated Nov 21, 2023 12:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Jalen Hurts TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+100/-130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +145 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

In regards to protecting the passer (and the positive impact it has on all pass attack statistics), the O-line of the Eagles grades out as the 5th-best in the league this year.
Jalen Hurts's 69.5% Adjusted Completion% this year reflects a remarkable improvement in his passing accuracy over last year's 66.0% mark.
Jalen Hurts has been among the best touchdown passers in the league this year, averaging an impressive 1.67 per game while grading out in the 76th percentile.

Favors Under

The model projects the Philadelphia Eagles as the least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 55.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
The predictive model expects the Philadelphia Eagles to be the least pass-heavy offense in the league near the end zone (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 47.3% red zone pass rate.
The predictive model expects the Eagles offense to be the most sluggish paced team in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 28.83 seconds per snap.
The projections expect Jalen Hurts to attempt 34.0 passes in this contest, on balance: the fewest among all QBs.
Opposing QBs teams have been hesitant to rely on the passing game too much against the Kansas City Chiefs, averaging the fewest attempts in the league (just 31.9 per game) this year.

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