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Jalen Hurts

Jalen Hurts TD Passes
Player Prop Week 1

New England Patriots vs Philadelphia Eagles

Jalen Hurts TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-115/-115).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the most plays run out of all the games this week at 133.2 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The Philadelphia Eagles have run the 10th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a whopping 59.6 plays per game.

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 36.9 pass attempts per game vs. the New England Patriots defense since the start of last season: 2nd-most in the league.

The Philadelphia Eagles offensive line profiles as the best in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a positive impact on all pass attack metrics across the board.

The New England Patriots defense has given up the 4th-most TDs through the air in the NFL: 1.65 per game since the start of last season.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Eagles are a 3.5-point favorite in this game, likely creating a rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Philadelphia Eagles as the 4th-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 52.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects the Philadelphia Eagles to be the least pass-oriented team in the NFL near the end zone (context-neutralized) right now with a 48.2% red zone pass rate.

The Philadelphia Eagles have played in the 9th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the league since the start of last season, which ought to mean reduced pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced offense effectiveness when facing windier conditions in this week's game.

THE BLITZ projects Jalen Hurts to attempt 32.4 passes this week, on average: the 8th-least of all quarterbacks.

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