Jalen Hurts TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Jalen Hurts

NFL · Player Props

Jalen Hurts

QB · Philadelphia Eagles

TD Passes

Detroit Lions vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 11:34 PM UTC

Analysis

Jalen Hurts TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+100/-137).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -113 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -137.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
The Philadelphia Eagles O-line profiles as the 3rd-best in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive effect on all air attack stats across the board.
The Detroit Lions defense has conceded the 3rd-most TDs through the air in the league: 1.82 per game since the start of last season.
The Detroit Lions safeties project as the 2nd-worst collection of safeties in the NFL since the start of last season in covering receivers.
The Philadelphia Eagles O-line has afforded their quarterback 2.90 seconds before the pass (best in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a strong effect on all passing offense statistics across the board.

Favors Under

The Eagles are a 5.5-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Philadelphia Eagles to be the 3rd-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 50.2% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Philadelphia Eagles to be the least pass-oriented offense in football near the goal line (context-neutralized) right now with a 52.1% red zone pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Eagles to call the 3rd-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 59.2 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Jalen Hurts to attempt 28.8 passes this week, on average: the 2nd-least of all QBs.

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