Jalen Hurts Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 22

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Jalen Hurts

NFL · Player Props

Jalen Hurts

QB · Philadelphia Eagles

Rushing Yards

Philadelphia Eagles vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 22, 2022

Updated Feb 12, 2023 10:26 PM EST

Analysis

Jalen Hurts Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 69.5 (+255/-375).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 46.5 @ -113 before it was bet up to 69.5 @ +255.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the least plays run on the slate this week at 138.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Philadelphia Eagles have called the 10th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a monstrous 59.6 plays per game.
The forecast calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
Jalen Hurts has averaged 9.6 rush attempts per game this year, one of the highest rates in the league among quarterbacks (97th percentile).
THE BLITZ projects Jalen Hurts to be a much bigger part of his offense's rushing attack this week (37.3% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (32.3% in games he has played).

Favors Under

Opposing offenses have run for the 8th-least yards in the league (just 107 per game) against the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year.
The Philadelphia Eagles have gone up against a stacked the box on 18.9% of their plays since the start of last season, most in the league. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Philadelphia Eagles have used motion in their offense on 28.1% of their plays since the start of last season (least in the league), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.

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