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Jalen Hurts

Jalen Hurts Rushing TD
Player Prop Week 4

Philadelphia Eagles vs Jacksonville Jaguars

Jalen Hurts Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+120/-161).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +128 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +120.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Eagles are a 6.5-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Philadelphia Eagles to be the 5th-most run-centric offense in the NFL near the end zone (in a neutral context) right now with a 45.3% red zone run rate.

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-most plays run on the slate this week at 135.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects Jalen Hurts to be a more important option in his offense's running game near the end zone this week (40.4% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (30.8% in games he has played).

The Philadelphia Eagles offensive line grades out as the 3rd-best in the league since the start of last season in run blocking.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Philadelphia Eagles have been faced with a stacked the box on 18.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

The Jacksonville Jaguars have stacked the box vs. opponents on 22.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

The Philadelphia Eagles have utilized motion in their offense on 28.1% of their play-calls since the start of last season (4th-least in the league), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.

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