Jalen Hurts Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Jalen Hurts

NFL · Player Props

Jalen Hurts

QB · Philadelphia Eagles

Rushing TD

Washington Commanders vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 7:30 PM UTC

Analysis

Jalen Hurts Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+130/-177).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -175 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -177.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Eagles are a 6-point favorite in this week's game, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Philadelphia Eagles to be the 3rd-most run-heavy offense in the NFL near the goal line (context-neutralized) right now with a 47.7% red zone run rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Eagles to call the 4th-most total plays on the slate this week with 63.8 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Jalen Hurts to be much more involved in his team's run game near the end zone this week (36.9% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (25.6% in games he has played).
The Philadelphia Eagles offensive line grades out as the 3rd-best in football since the start of last season at run-game blocking.

Favors Under

Opposing squads have rushed for the 10th-least TDs in the league (0.79 per game) vs. the Washington Commanders defense since the start of last season.
The Washington Commanders defensive ends rank as the 5th-best group of DEs in football since the start of last season when it comes to defending the run.
The Philadelphia Eagles have been faced with a stacked the box on 18.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Philadelphia Eagles have utilized motion in their offense on 28.1% of their plays since the start of last season (4th-least in the NFL), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.

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